The ingredient we can't do without h55l

When political leaders, climate scientists and campaigners gather for the UN COP27 climate change meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, one particular consequence of global warming will be thrown into focus: water insecurity. 

Egypt is vulnerable to drought, but at present ranks as the most water secure nation on the African continent. In part, this is due to the abundance of water brought into the country by the River Nile, and a nationwide plan to improve access to water. But that balance might change, as arid areas of East Africa are expected to experience more frequent droughts in the future. 

The effects of longer periods of drought are already being felt in Egypt. "The temperature is ascending and the crop is going to corrupt," says Hosney Mohamed Hussein, who goes by Abdo, as he surveys his tomato crops on his small farm in the Suhag region of Egypt. Abdo, in his 60s, inherited his 20-acre (eight-hectare) farm from his father and grandfather, who have worked this land on the banks of the Nile since 1952.

The Suhag region is becoming increasingly desertified, he says. He used to grow onions but switched to tomatoes to save water. 

But climate change is having a number of other effects on his crops. The cultivation season is getting shorter. While previously crops would be sown in August and harvested in June – avoiding the hottest months and allowing for two crops each season – increasing temperatures mean that the end of the agricultural season has moved to the middle of March.

Temperatures are also spoiling seeds before they even go into the ground and crops are perishing on the vines. Abdo lost a large amount of his tomato crop last year because of an unexpectedly large increase in temperature, he says, adding that the beginning of summer 2021 was extremely hot.

Preparing for future crises goes hand in hand with improving water security, and farmers are particularly well equipped to handle these surprises, says Maximo Torero, the chief economist and assistant director-general for the Economic and Social Development Department at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

"We have seen shocks like Covid-19 [but farmers] were able to handle it," he says in an interview with the new presenter of Follow the Food, environmental journalist Amanda Little. "There were some logistical problems in the beginning but the farmers showed… that they are resilient. We are seeing now a new shock which is [rising] energy prices, [but] our farmers are still planting. But clearly, if we don't change the way we think and we don't understand the importance of this sector… there is a limit to which our farmers can resist."

Torero gives the example of how new technologies can help farmers to reduce their water requirements, such as drip irrigation or precision agriculture methods. He says that technology normally works at scale but the challenge is to bring the benefits of technology to smallholders, who are the most constrained by financial budgets. 

Brian Pickering, a fifth-generation farmer whose family has been on their 2,000-acre (809-hectare) farm in Iowa, USA, since 1872, has adopted technology on his farm, using a drone to seed cover crops among his soya plants. Cover cropping involves planting a secondary crop between main crops to cover what would otherwise be bare earth. The technique helps to preserve soil structure and store carbon there while also retaining vital water and nutrients.

The drone allows Pickering to spread his cover crop without driving a vehicle over the fields, which would damage the main crop as it matures. You can see how Pickering uses his drone to plant cover crops without damaging his harvest in the film below.

Climate change is not the only reason Egypt's water security is under threat. The Nahda Dam crisis has highlighted the country's dependence on the Nile, from which comes 97% of Egypt's freshwater.The country's population is expected to expand considerably, says Abbas Sharaky, professor of geology at Cairo University. As pressure on food production increases, there are predictions that the demand for water is likely to outstrip what the Nile can supply within the current decade.

Outdated farming techniques use what water there is inefficiently. Mohamed Fahim, consultant on climate change to the minister of agriculture, says that Egypt's agricultural industry is "climatically fragile" with 60% of farmland in Egypt managed under outdated agricultural techniques, which makes the land sensitive to water crises.

For example, some farmers depend on flood irrigation, whereby water is lifted from a canal by machine and then tipped over land, which consumes more water than modern techniques like drip irrigation. 

Fahim adds that the Egyptian government has produced an agricultural plan to deal with the shortage of water, which involves expanding farmland into previously unfarmed areas. There are plans to prohibit flooding irrigation on these new lands, as well as plans to introduce varieties that can cope with Egypt's long, cold winters and preparing for dust storms, which can cause diseases like "purple sting", by preventatively spraying crops with a protective coating. 

In addition, farmers are moving towards early-ripening varieties of wheat and maize to shorten the cultivation period and save water, and the government is building silos to create a reserve in case of future global crises. 

Egypt stores its annual share from water at the Aswan High Dam. But when the dam was constructed in 1970, the population of the country was around 25 million, says Abbas Sharaky. Then, the dam produced around 2,000 cubic metres (70,630 cubic ft) per person, he adds, saying that the country aims to provide 1,000 cubic metres (35,515 cubic ft) per person. Today, the population is close to 104 million, which equates to 500 cubic metres (17,657 cubic ft) each.

Mohamed Ahmed Omar, a Sudanese agricultural expert and member of the Australian delegation of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), says Egypt will need to work with neighbouring countries to secure water for the wider region.

The construction of the Ethiopian Nahda Dam could put more pressure on the Aswan High Dam. Sharaky says that in the last three years, Egypt's share of Nile water hasn't decreased because there have been a succession of "flood years" in which rains increase. When the Nahda Dam opened with its first phase of filling in 2020, Egypt was unaffected. But as the dam continues to fill and with the approach of the "lean years", in which rains decrease, Egypt's share will be "undoubtedly harmed", he warns, and Egypt will have to pay much more to find other sources of water.

"Within two decades, Egypt will be in a great water danger," agrees Omar. While the situation now might not look too severe, both experts warn of the forthcoming challenges. 

For Abdo, the farmer, he is still concerned with keeping his motorised well running and his tomatoes flourishing. Talk of international strategies at COP27 seem a long way away. But he is hopeful this year's crop will do better than his last.